Nationals Choose Werth Over Patience

Now that the Super Bowl and its extensive levels of pomposity set amid the nation's winter doldrums has come and gone, it's almost time to make way for the always joyfully optimistic slot on the yearly sports docket: pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training. That means fans in the Nation's Capital and baseball cities far and wide (well, except Pittsburgh) will begin talking themselves into believing, this is our year.

The question for Washington Nationals rooters is, "the year for what?"

Stephen Strasburg's assorted fast and curvy strikeout pitches for a brief while made the Nationals the talk of the town. But ever since the flame throwing pitching phenom required season-ending (not career-ending) surgery on his prized right elbow, the 2011 season had an air of mystery around it. 

Would the largely frugal Nationals—at least when it came to Major League salaries—continue to take the methodical train to contention? Would they continue building for the day Strasburg's arm was healed and 18-year old Bryce Harper's prodigious power to all fields was ready for it's big league close-up? Or, would they step up their current efforts on the big stage, trying to keep the momentum rolling from their prosperous (financially and buzzworthy) summer to not return to the back pages of the local sports scene as they did when Strasburg's elbow said no mas?

As it turns out, they did neither. Well, sort of.

The Nationals have been wise to not talk about the immediacy of their two once-in-a-generation type talents, especially with one coming off serious surgery and the other still not old enough to have a legal drink at the Red Porch. Yet they signed the impactful, but not franchise direction-altering free agent Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million dollar deal.

By the time the young guns begin their assent, the majority of the 31-year old outfielder's best days will lie in the past. Mixed signals, you could say, and therein lies the rub.

See, the rebuilding phase was already on it's way and accelerated with rocket fuel following the back-to-back drafting of the uber-talented aforementioned duo, though the overall depth of their minor league system remains thinner than Daniel Snyder's rationale for suing the Washington City Paper.

However prospects like closer-in-training Drew Storen, the double-play combination of shortstop Ian Desmond and second baseman Danny Espinosa, and the young hurler returning from his own arm surgery Jordan Zimmermann, are already trying to make a name for themselves on the big league stage.

That youthful base, which still counts 26-year old and arguably the top all-around third baseman in the game Ryan Zimmerman as it's leading member, has observers in both the fan and pundit class thinking this group can lead a charge up the National League East divisional ladder after years of being on the bottom rung.

But not now, not yet.

Strasburg's recovery after undergoing Tommy John Surgery appears to be on track, but the top pick in the 2009 draft is still months away from returning to a Major League mound. And longer yet for him to realistically perform at the dominating level he showed during much of that glorious two and a half month span last summer. Without him, the current rotation is a middling to low-end group of tossers at best.

As for Harper, it will be tempting to rush him through the minor leagues if he pops off homer after homer, but he is/should be at least two years away from being a regular contributor. That's about the time we'll know whether the chemistry has developed in the middle of the infield and the other unripened arms have blossomed.

Modest moves in the offseason were the call, which would still have been an upgrade over the relative inactivity in free agency in years past. Re-sign power-packed first baseman Adam Dunn to a modest—by baseball standards —three or four-year deal. Tack on an innings eating, rotation stabilizing a starter pitching or two. Add quality overall depth to their lacking bench. Thus the kids could continue to grow and heal, the major-leaguers could move toward a competent brand of baseball that would keep the ticket-buying public entertained and the long-term budget would not be weighted down by hefty, long-term contracts to older players.

There would eventually be some of that, like trading for veteran starer Tom Gorzelanny, adding veteran outfielder Rick Ankiel and signing established first baseman Adam LaRoche to a lucrative, but only two-year deal.

Yet, after years of barely dipping their toe into baseball's free agent waters, the Nationals chose this offseason to dive head first into the true deep end by inking Werth as the 13th richest in the history of the game.

No knock on Werth, who starred on but was not the centerpiece of a Philadelphia Phillies club that reached the postseason four straight years and won it all in 2008. Though lacking the power of Dunn, the player he essentially replaced, Werth is considered a better all-around player due to his defensive ability in right field combined with heady instincts and productive bat.

However his skill set is not transformative. For the price paid, he should be. That type of lucrative deal is for a team ready to win now. The holes on the overall roster suggest that dream belongs in a pipe, not in a 2011 daily planner especially while the Nats future is still teething. No, the Phillies or the other divisional contenders will not be looking over their collective shoulders at the Nationals, not yet. Spend, yes, but later, not now.

Nats nation, there is reason to be sunny about the upcoming season, perhaps even poetic if you keep the proper perspective. Consider a .500 record nice in the initial campaign of Werth at his incredibly high price.

But anyone answering my initial question with a robust "to contend" must be able to see the future precise or simply are unable to couch their enthusiasm for when it will be about Stras and Bryce. Ultimately, my advice would have been that it seemed like an odd time for the Nationals to gamble on free agency and roll those very expensive dice.